Deribit ↔ Polymarket
Case study
Reads a probability out of Bitcoin options and bets it against Polymarket. An honest post-mortem of why the edge was a mirage.
PythonBlack-76SVI
/quant
Pricing, prediction markets, simulation.
Reads a probability out of Bitcoin options and bets it against Polymarket. An honest post-mortem of why the edge was a mirage.
Derives fair odds for a runner to finish exactly 2nd, from win/place markets (Harville).