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Quant & Markets

Pricing, prediction markets, simulation.

Deribit ↔ Polymarket

Case study

Reads a probability out of Bitcoin options and bets it against Polymarket. An honest post-mortem of why the edge was a mirage.

PythonBlack-76SVI

Second-Place Price Tool

Live

Derives fair odds for a runner to finish exactly 2nd, from win/place markets (Harville).

PythonFastAPIHarville